The Icelandic volcanic ash crisis is yet another blow to independent travel agents and tour operators.

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has already estimated the cost to airlines from the six-day crisis at US$1.7 billion. “…The crisis impacted 29% of global aviation and affected 1.2 million passengers a day. The scale of the crisis eclipsed 9/11…” said IATA’s Director General and CEO, Giovanni Bisignani.

At the turn of the year, Baker Tilly anticipated that it would be another difficult year for the travel industry. It is a sector that relies heavily upon consumer spending and overall confidence, which the latest crisis does nothing to reinforce.

The international nature of its business means that the industry is exposed to external shocks. Events such as SARS, bird flu, 9/11, 7/7 and swine flu have all been headline issues in the travel trade. However, as Watford-based Restructuring and Recovery partner, Mark Wilson, points out, the industry has proved resilient to such events and has learned to adjust its capacity and services to meet needs and demands. Indeed, it is often the travel agents and tour operators who step in to sort out travel problems. Inevitably, though, such events bring costs to those businesses and additional strains on human resources.

The volcanic ash crisis was a shock that the industry could have done without in the wake of the financial crisis and ensuing recession. It is bound to be a further blow to confidence and will also hit ancillary businesses that supply services to the travel industry, such as ground staff and catering companies at airports. The big question is how consumers’ future travel plans may now be affected. Might they avoid holidays involving air travel? May they decide to stay in the UK this summer? Will they choose alternative travel experiences such as cruises or travel by train?

As we go to press, no-one knows whether the Eyjafjalla volcano will spew out further ash nor indeed whether the larger, neighbouring Katla volcano will also erupt, as it has in the past. The travel sector now lives with these uncertainties going forward – and the unexpected events yet to come.